Home / How We Pick
How We Pick Our Tips
The method behind every tip on this website, and the limits you should know about before you use it.
David HayesEditor ยท Updated October 22, 2026
Our Principles at a Glance
Why We Explain Our Method
A tip is only worth as much as the thinking behind it. Many tips websites publish a list of matches and expect you to trust them. We think you should be able to see how a pick was made, so that you can check it, disagree with it or skip it. This page describes the process we follow. It is the same process for every market we cover: BTTS Tips, Over/Under Goals Tips and Corners Tips.
Our Tipping Process, Step by Step
- Choose the Matches. We focus on leagues and competitions where reliable information is easy to find, such as the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and the Champions League. We skip matches where team news is unclear or data is thin.
- Read the Match. Recent form split into home and away, goals scored and conceded, chance quality, injuries, suspensions, likely line-ups, tactics and how both teams actually play, not just their league position.
- Check the Context. Fixture congestion, travel, rotation, the weather and what the match means for each side. A team with nothing to play for often plays differently.
- Estimate the Chance. We form our own view of how likely each outcome is and turn it into fair odds, before we look closely at what the bookmakers offer.
- Compare the Price. We compare our estimate with the odds across bookmakers. If the price does not leave room for error, there is no tip.
- Publish With Reasons. The pick goes up before kick-off with the market, the decimal odds and a short explanation.
- Record the Result. After the match we mark the tip as Won, Lost or Void in our archive, so the record stays honest.
How We Think About Value
Odds carry a probability. Divide 1 by the decimal odds and you get the chance the price implies. Odds of 2.00 imply 50.00%, odds of 1.85 imply 54.05% and odds of 3.50 imply 28.57%. A bet has value only when we believe the true chance is higher than the price implies.
Example. We rate a team’s chance of a result at 60%. The odds are 1.85, which imply 54.05%. A 10.00 stake returns 18.50 if it wins, so the expected return is 0.60 x 18.50 = 11.10, an expected profit of 1.10. If our estimate were only 50%, the same bet would have an expected return of 9.25 and would lose money in the long run.
This is why we skip many matches. A likely outcome at a poor price is not a good tip, and a long-shot at a big price is not a good tip if its chance is lower than it looks. You can see the same idea applied in the worked examples on our goal and corner pages.
What We Will Not Do
- Promise wins. No one can guarantee a football result, and we never claim sure bets or fixed matches.
- Hide losing tips. Results are recorded as Won, Lost or Void. We do not delete the bad days.
- Publish after the fact. A tip posted after kick-off is a result, not a tip.
- Invent records. We do not publish made-up results, testimonials or accuracy percentages.
- Pressure you to bet. We do not use countdowns, fake scarcity or pressure to push you into a bet or a purchase.
The Limits of Any Tip
Football is a low-scoring sport, so luck plays a large part. Even a pick that wins 60% of the time loses 40% of the time. The chance of three such picks losing in a row is 0.40 x 0.40 x 0.40, which is 6.40%, so losing runs of three happen regularly to any honest tipster. Over a small number of bets, results say very little about skill.
That is why we ask you to judge tips on their reasoning and on the price you get, and to bet only small amounts you can afford to lose. Betting is a form of entertainment, not a way to earn money. If it stops being fun, our Responsible Gambling page lists where to get help.
Independence and Affiliate Links
Some links on this website go to betting operators, and we may earn a commission if you sign up. Those links are labelled in our Affiliate Disclosure. The commission is paid by the operator and costs you nothing extra. Affiliate links do not change which tips we publish. We only recommend you use services licensed in your country, and only if you are 18 or older.
Corrections and Contact
Edited by David Hayes
David is the editor of Football Betting Tips Today and is responsible for how this method is written down and kept up to date. This page was last reviewed on October 22, 2026.
If you find a mistake, disagree with a tip or have a question about our method, please use the contact page. We read every message and correct errors when we find them.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you pick your football tips?
We read the match, check the context, estimate the chance, compare our estimate with the bookmakers’ odds and publish only when the price justifies the risk. Every tip is posted before kick-off with a short reason.
Are your tips guaranteed to win?
No. Nobody can guarantee a football result. Every tip is an opinion based on analysis, and any bet can lose.
Do you show your losing tips?
Yes. Results are recorded as Won, Lost or Void in our archive, so the record includes the bad days as well as the good ones.
Do affiliate links affect your tips?
No. Affiliate links do not change which tips we publish. They are explained in our Affiliate Disclosure.
Why do you sometimes publish no tip for a match?
When the odds do not justify the risk, or the information on a match is thin, we skip it. Passing on a match is part of the method.
Who writes these tips?
The site is edited by David Hayes. You can reach us through the contact page.
Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 18+ only. Betting involves risk. Read our Responsible Gambling page before you bet.